The mathematics of Mafia

## **Chapter 20 — Why Mafia Is a Mathematical Game**

20.1 Mafia as Information Theory

20.2 Why Logic Beats Emotion

20.3 The 90% Logic / 10% Intuition Rule

20.4 Probability vs Instinct

20.5 Structural Thinking for Mafia

## **Chapter 21 — Probability Essentials**

21.1 Basic Probabilities (Roles / Checks / Kills)

21.2 Conditional Probability (Bayesian Thinking)

21.3 What Kills Mean Mathematically

21.4 Sheriff Probability Trees

21.5 EV (Expected Value) of Decisions

## **Chapter 22 — Vote Mathematics**

22.1 Majority Theory

22.2 Vote Power

22.3 Parity Mechanics

22.4 Breaking and Protecting Parity

22.5 How One Vote Loses the Game

22.6 Why Emotional Voting Is Deadly

## **Chapter 23 — Critical Player Counts (The Real Game Deciders)**

23.1 Why 8 Players Left Is Already Critical

23.2 Why 7 Is “Hard Critical”

23.3 Why 6 Is Parity → Instant Loss

23.4 5, 4, 3 Player Endgames

23.5 Full Table of Transitions (10 → 3)

23.6 Real Game Examples

## **Chapter 24 — Decision-Making Under Uncertainty**

24.1 Risk vs Reward

24.2 Decision Trees

24.3 Information Paths

24.4 Psychological vs Mathematical Choices

24.5 Mixing Intuition Into a Logic-Driven Game