The mathematics of Mafia

Author: Vitaly - mr. Koteo (Brisbane Mafia Club)

Sports Mafia is not just a social game — it is a system of probability, structure, and decisions under uncertainty.

This part teaches you how to move from:

• “Who feels Dark?” to

• “Which worlds are possible — and which decision is best across them?”

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Core Idea

You are not solving the game. You are reducing possibilities.

Every action:

• vote

• check

• kill

• hesitation

creates constraints that eliminate worlds and shape the outcome.

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How the Game Is Won

• Red wins by convergence — reducing uncertainty fast

• Dark wins by delay — preserving ambiguity

Critical rounds (8, 7, 6, 5) are where structure matters more than reads.

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Key Concept: Expected Value (EV)

The goal is not to be right once.

The goal is:

make the decision that gives the highest chance to win across all possible worlds

A correct decision can lose. An incorrect one can win. Over time, only EV-positive play is consistent.

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What You Will Learn

• how probability works in real games

• how votes create structure

• how to recognise critical positions and parity

• how to make decisions under uncertainty

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How to Use This Part

Use it to:

• analyse games correctly

• stay logical under pressure

• choose the best available decision, not the most convincing story

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Bottom Line

Mafia is not about guessing the truth.

It is about:

making the best decision before the truth is known.